It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
